Gail again proves that actuarial and analytical skills trump journalists in this clear analysis of the situation with the peak of oil production. A must read for all sustainability afficiendos.
On Monday, September 29, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a story called “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True.” The story is written as if there are only two possible outcomes:
- The Peak Oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or
- Diminishing Returns can and are being put off by technological progress–the view of the WSJ.
It seems to me, though, that a third outcome is not only possible, but is what is actually happening.
3. Diminishing returns from oil limits are already beginning to hit, but the impacts and the expected shape of the down slope are quite different from those forecast by most Peak Oilers.
Area of Confusion
In many people’s way of thinking, the economy is separate from resources and the extraction of those resources. If we believe economists, the economy can grow indefinitely, with or without the use of…
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