A look at the passenger miles produced in the Swedish transport system reveals some interesting statistics. When you add the CO2 emissions per transport type you get even more interesting insights.
The graph below comes from the transport statistics authority for transport within Sweden. And the nature protection agency.
In terms of CO2 emissions, the one transport type that dominates is the one that produces a greater proportion of emissions than the proportion of passenger miles. The reverse is true of rail transport. It produces the second largest number of passenger miles and a miniscule proportion of emissions.
What does this mean for policy? Just looking at the diagram, if you want to reduce CO2 fast, then policy must be aimed at the private combustion engine car. And using the advantage of rail. Where rail cannot be used, the bus is much better than the private car.
The sea results are interesting. Boat transport is very effective, but we are looking at the ferry system included in the figures. It may well be that we need to investigate further as ferries take cars as well.
The graph would have looked different for the 1950s. The chart below shows what has happened to transport in Sweden since then: it’s been automobiled! Swedes are using the same amount of rail and bus travel as they did in the 50s – and the population has grown from 7 million to 10.5 million!
Sweden went rapidly from a rail, bus and other transport method society (MC, moped, walking, cycling) to a nation whose transport method was predominantly by car.
Maybe there is clue to how Sweden can defossilize in this, and it will have to do with building a society where people don’t actually need to take the car. How did it work in the 1950’s? I can’t believe life was that harsh. This is definitely a line to investigate more.
Some things spring to mind: towns had a lot more local shops. And people did not work all hours, so they could use public transport with routes that coincided with work hours. Or, if they worked shift, they lived close to their work.
Of course, people will feel badly hurt if their car is taken away, this needs careful planning! What could you offer instead? How about a green transition basic income with a free electric taxi card topped up to say 10,000 kms a year?
Do put your ideas in the comments section.
Stephen Hinton Consulting 