Envisioning Sustainable Futures – Stephen Hinton Consulting

The IPCC AR6: consequences for municipalities

Given the warming already locked in, as well as the lack of measures in place, municipalities should prepare for weather pattern instability as well as to be ready for fast changes in political will. The work of Igor Ansoff gives guidance.

ABSTRACT

This report looks at the consequences of the recent IPCC synthesis for municipal authorities in their longer-term planning. Although the main focus is Sweden, the report should be relevant to municipalities in other countries. It suggests that given the warming already locked in, as well as the lack of measures in place, municipalities should prepare for weather pattern instability as well as to be ready for fast changes in political will. The report suggests following the advice of strategist Igor Ansoff to set up capabilities to deal with a turbulent operating environment. This includes capability to monitor the situation, work with a range of scenarios and to ensure the organisation is agile enough to deal with unexpected changes, be they physical, social or political. The report suggests municipalities address three basic strategic questions covering global inaction, energy transition and food provision. It proposes a holistic approach analysing each measure to address climate instability on several dimensions to avoid, among other things, adaptation putting unfair pressure on the poorest.

Another way to model complexity in economics: game it!

I heard that Marx struggled at the end of his life to learn enough mathematics to demonstrate his insights as calculations. He didn’t make it. But it is understandable. Society runs on expert calculation. We see them every day about the effects of interest rates and output and unemployment, estimates of share prices etc. The problem is, we are dealing with complexity and treating it like a simple case of “doing the maths” when mathematics is poorly equipped to do that.

Carbon accounting in the circular municipality

Material flows in different scales

You would expect that material flows would present their own logic for whether they are best handled in your own home or at a global level. Or scales in between. Factors like material density, value and frequency of use and transport would be obvious candidates.

This article focusses on the municipality and looks specifically at the material flows that contain carbon. And we’ll take a practical example: the area called Västra Gästrikland (VG) in the north of Sweden. This is an area comprising three municipalities in cooperation.

Can you measure how appropriate your culture is?

Will it support your survival?

Business leaders understand that it is essential that the culture of the corporation fits the market and wider context the corporation operates in. They also understand how the culture of the corporation needs to adapt and evolve with the changes in the business environment. Its corporate culture ensures the organisation can thrive. Can one draw a parallel to the development of national culture?

Peace and circular economy to be featured in investors in peace newsletter

Investors in Peace has been going as a website, blog and newsletter since 2016.

Today they are announcing that to improve our newsletter service they are going over to Substack. The newsletter is free, although they are planning, later down the line, to introduce a paying service for our more in-depth articles and other services.

Stephenhinton.org will be contributing articles primarily on the connection between the circular economy and Peace with the Earth.

Go to investorsinpeace.substack.com

Why talk about the business of peace now?

The topic is more apposite than ever: with the whole basis of business being undermined by energy costs, wars going on and politics that seems to have lost its way we believe the one thing to aim for is the one thing that is a real thing: peace.

Peace is not about the way we run things, it’s about who we are. More than the sum of all our business successes and failures put together. More than ever we need to be reminded that in the middle of trying to keep the wheels of production going we need to feel peace.

Over the next few weeks we’ll be publishing highlights from the past eight years and going deeper into the four aspects of the business of business as peace.

Peace with ourselves

Peace with the Earth

Peace with each other

Peace with the future generations

So, look out for new editions of the newsletter, and do check out the website: investorsinpeace.com

As usual you can opt-out at any time by following the unsubscribe links at the bottom of the page.

Copenhagen’s plan for net-zero

Copenhagen aims to be the first carbon neutral capital by 2025. This article explains how they plan to do it and hints at several obstacle along the way.

Plans to be the first carbon neutral capital by 2025

The statue of HC Andersen at the City Hall Square Copenhagen

Copenhagen aims to be the first carbon neutral capital by 2025. Their report CPH 2020 Roadmap 2021-2025 lays out the challenges: fossil-based emissions come from two main sources: energy production and transport. The city aims to introduce some forty-seven different initiatives to completely remove fossil emissions from energy production and reduce transport emissions by just over 11% on 2018 levels.

FAST FACTS

AREA: Copenhagen city
POPULATION: 620 000
EMISSIONS 2018: 1 500 000 tonnes CO2 per year
BASELINE PROJECTION: 630,000 tonnes CO2 per year
EMISSIONS 2050 with roadmap: 430,000 tonnes CO2 per year
ROADMAP REDUCTION: 200,000 tonnes CO2 per year
NUMBER OF ROADMAP MEASURES: 47

Energy generation

The bulk of reductions, 855,000 tons of CO2, will come from investments in renewable energy production. By 2025, Copenhagen’s production of electricity and heating will be mainly based on wind, biomass, geothermal energy, and waste. The district heating will be carbon neutral and the city will produce green electricity exceeding its consumption, in order to offset remaining CO2 emissions. The excess of green electricity will be exported to other parts of Denmark.

Energy consumption

Another way to reducing fossil fules in energy consumption is to reduce need for consumption. The Copenhagen plan contains measure to stimulate building insulation and smart energy regulation.

Transport

More than half of Copenhageners use bicycles as their main means of transport. The Climate Plan calls for 75% of all trips in Copenhagen to be on foot, by bike, or via public transport. The city also aims to make public transport carbon neutral and increase its use by 20%.

We will be discussing these plans from several perspectives in future blogs. For now, the plan has stirred controversy, see for example this article from The Conversation which says that reliance on unproven technology and external funding can both upset the best laid plans.

What use are the SDGS if there is global failure on every one of them?

Writing on his blog, Professor Jem Bendell explains the recent letter from scholars to the UN’s disaster event.

Professor Bendell says the SDGs represent a “failing approach, with all the indicators heading in the wrong direction”.

The UN reports countries have gone backwards on most of them. That is even before the inflation, energy and food polycrises of 2022. This failure was predicted at the outset, by scholars who identified the impossibility of promoting ecologically-demanding consumer lifestyles as the means of progress for all.

Says Bendell: “Our main proposal is that we all stop pretending that we can grow economies, reduce poverty and avert environmental disasters.”

As we have outlined here in this blog earlier, there needs to be a general acceptance of resource limits and a systematic approach to providing quality of life within planetary boundaries. The current disciplines of economics and public management along with the democratic system are inadequate for the task.

The systemic approach outlined in this blog’s earlier posts might provide a better start.

Please Nippon Steel, don’t cut these woods! Update.

My letter pleading with Nippon Steel to reverse the decision to log Ovakos forest, close to Hofors town was premature. Ovako have reversed their decision

Lissjön woods with the lake in the background

Update! They didn’t cut the woods down.

We just heard that Ovako, subsidiary of Nippon steel, just announced that they will not cut the forest.

Real Capital: needs regenerating not depleting for profit

This E-book, produced from earlier writings, attempts to explain how Real
Capital – a cornerstone of the means of production – gets depleted by the
current system. Rather the creating a platform for future prosperity, the
system is removing the very things that coming generations need to be able
to provide for themselves.

The hope is that this short paper will clarify for policy makers where systemic
changes need to be made, and where the changes need to be put in place
to drive an industry-led transition to the circular economy.

Download the report here.

real-capital_61f155c4 Download

Regenerating Society One “Cell” at a Time

Guest post by Steve Hamm

Bridge Street in Humboldt (early morning)

Ten years ago, Humboldt, Kansas, was a lot like thousands of small towns across the United States. Economic and social shifts had left the once-booming downtown feeling eerily abandoned. Walmart stores had opened up to the north and south of town, “sucking the life out,” as one local man put it. A highway bypass had been built. And, because of mechanization, the many farms in the area required fewer workers. As a result, many storefronts were empty and the town population was dwindling.

But the residents of this town of 1900 people didn’t give up. The area economy was actually quite sound. There were three successful industries—farming, a cement plant, and a fast-growing trailer hitch company. It was the downtown and the sense of wellbeing that needed a shot of adrenaline. That boost is now being provided by Joe Works, the founder and CEO of B&W Trailer Hitches, and a group of young people, mostly made up of his children, who launched an initiative called A Bolder Humboldt aimed at making the town a vibrant place to live and visit. “Why should people have to move elsewhere to enjoy the nicer things in life? Why can’t they have all those things in a small town in the Midwest?” says Joe.