Based on official statistics it is possible to put together a high-level balance sheet for Sweden’s carbon dioxide emissions and uptake. It does raise some interesting questions as to how the statistics are set up, but let us look at the overall picture – to better understand how the country can fulfil its ambition to be climate neutral by 2050.
The table explained
Column(1) itemises the various sources/sinks of CO2. Column 2 is the amount of CO2 sequestered (as a positive). Sequestration is seen as an asset.
On the liabilities side, the CO2 of biological origin, are in column 3 and fossil origin emissions are in column 4. Separating the sources has the advantage of seeing measures directly: biogenic sources that are larger than biogenic uptake mean working with nature to redress the balance. Fossil sources require more technological approaches, like investing in electric vehicles.
In the equity column, 5, we have the difference of assets-liabilities, or
columns (C2) – (C3+C4)=C6
In this case, equity is given as minus if emissions are more than sequestration.
For now, we can see from the bottom line(note 17) that total sequestration 171 million tonnes per year, whilst biogenic emissions are 26 and fossil fuels are 76. The total emissions are 41 mt CO2.
Line 8 needs more work. You would think that forestry would not remove as much carbon dioxide as indicated as it produces wood. This is reflected in the line 15, where using wood to build sequesters carbon for 30 years at least. However, only a small proportion of wood is used in this way. The majority is in fibre or burnt, so the CO2 from forestry ends up being burnt within two years, with only a fraction being recycled and having its life-time extended to three or four years.
Potential for Sweden to reach Net Zero
Transport by private car needs replacing
The largest fossil-emitting category is the transport industry. Of this, domestic emissions come from the private cars. Electrification and city planning to reduce private car demand could be route to reducing transport emissions (note 11)
Increase Forest sequestration
By reducing forestry, the Swedish forests will be able to sequester more carbon and accelerate to net zero. (Note 8)
Restore wetlands
Although a small percentage of emissions, the investment to restore wetlands to net positive is relatively inexpensive.
De fossilize Industry
Although a higher proportion of industrial CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels a smaller proportion of energy is fossil based. Swedish industry already uses a lot of electrical energy. If Sweden were to 1) extend the lifetime of products by 20%, it would need 20% less energy, and the fossil based energy could be the first to go.
The other strategy is simply to electrify industry where possible.
The potential is illustrated below. How much change over 5 years is needed for each sector?
| Category of CO2 emission | % Change per every 5 yrs |
| Farm uptake | +2 |
| Forest uptake | +6 |
| Transport | -15 |
| Industry | -3 |
| Consumption abroad | -5 |
The table above gives the following graph, that lands at net zero more or less. The policy question is what policies do you see being implemented to stimulate the changes in each sector? The excel tables are available on request from the author.
Stephen Hinton Consulting 